Status: IN
LLM self-assessed confidence does not reliably track accuracy. Confirmed across 4 models (corrected results): Opus r=0.280, Sonnet r=0.223, Flash r=0.267, Pro r=0.137. Confidence explains only 2-8% of variance. Revision based on self-assessment damages accuracy in all 4 models (-3pp to -41.5pp). Same structural flaw as human overconfidence (Kahneman) — answer and confidence come from the same process.
Source: repo:beliefs-pi/CLAUDE.md